September 2020 Report

San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge

Despite the terrible fires, SF had a very active month in listings going into contract in August, hitting a high point for the year and matching the high points of recent years. Surprisingly, the fires did not significantly impact the number of deals being made in most Bay Area counties during the last 2 weeks of the month - the exceptions being Santa Cruz, Sonoma, Monterey and Napa Counties, which saw declines of 13% to 33%.

San Francisco market dynamics and seasonality chart of monthly listings accepting offers, January 2018–August 2020.

The number of active listings on the SF market has risen dramatically over the last few months, outpacing the increase in listings going into contract. However, there are significant differences between the house and condo markets, which are discussed later in the report. 

Monthly San Francisco active listings from July 2016 to August 2020.

With the increase in inventory has come a big jump in the number of listings reducing asking price. In some market segments, sellers are now competing for buyers, instead of buyers competing for listings. 

San Francisco price-reduction chart, with monthly bars surging to about 425 in August 2020.

The next two charts illustrate how the house and condo markets have diverged since the pandemic hit. The condo market is much weaker, comparing demand to supply. However, within the condo market, different neighborhoods are seeing varying dynamics, and hundreds of condos are still selling each month. More detail follows later in the report.

San Francisco chart comparing house and condo market activity, including listings, sales, and price changes in August 2020.

Regarding the next chart, the lower the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. Much of the SF house market (blue columns) remains firmly in "seller's market" territory, but the condo market's supply (red columns) is outpacing buyer demand, especially in the higher price segments.

San Francisco housing inventory chart compares house and condo supply across six price ranges in late August 2020.

Below is a comparison of median house sales prices, sizes and dollar per square foot values around the Bay Area this past summer.

Bay Area summer 2020 home-sale statistics by county and house size, in a color-coded table.

A review of year-over-year changes in the number of luxury home sales around the Bay Area this past summer. Some other counties have seen astounding increases. SF luxury house sales increased by a more modest percentage; SF luxury condo sales declined year over year. 

Bar chart comparing luxury home sales across Bay Area counties in summer 2019 and 2020.

The following 3 charts illustrate aspects of the SF HOUSE market: Median house sales price trends by bedroom count; sales volumes and median sales prices by Realtor district; and the number of active house listings by Realtor district with an analysis of months supply of inventory. 

San Francisco median home prices by bedroom count from 2005 to 2020, shown as three rising trend lines.San Francisco house sales by Realtor district, with sales counts and median prices through August 20, 2020.Bar chart of San Francisco house listings by Realtor district, with listing counts and months of inventory.

The following 3 charts illustrate aspects of the SF CONDO & CO-OP market: Median sales price trends by bedroom count; sales volumes and median sales prices by Realtor district; and the number of active listings by Realtor district with an analysis of months supply of inventory.

Chart of San Francisco condo and co-op median sales prices by bedroom count, 2005–2020.San Francisco condo and co-op sales chart by Realtor district, with sales counts and median prices.San Francisco condo listings by realtor district, with listing counts and months of inventory.

In last month's report, we looked at era of construction for the city's houses. The chart below does the same for the SF condo, co-op and TIC market. 

Pie chart of San Francisco condo sales by construction era, with sale counts, median prices, and square footage.

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